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Independence, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for 3 Miles S Sugar Creek MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: 3 Miles S Sugar Creek MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 2:42 pm CDT Jun 26, 2025
 
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm.  Sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 97. South southwest wind around 9 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance
T-storms

Tonight

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between midnight and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall.  Increasing clouds, with a low around 72. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Heavy Rain

Friday

Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10am.  Partly sunny, with a high near 89. West southwest wind around 7 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms

Friday
Night
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind around 6 mph.
Partly Cloudy

Saturday

Saturday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. South southwest wind 6 to 8 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly Sunny
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Partly Cloudy
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Sunday

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
T-storms

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
T-storms
Likely

Monday

Monday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
T-storms

Hi 91 °F Lo 72 °F Hi 89 °F Lo 73 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 76 °F Hi 92 °F Lo 72 °F Hi 87 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Flood Watch
 

This Afternoon
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 97. South southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between midnight and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Increasing clouds, with a low around 72. Southwest wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Friday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. West southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Friday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind around 6 mph.
Saturday
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. South southwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Sunday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night
 
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 68.
Tuesday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Tuesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 67.
Wednesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 88.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 69.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 3 Miles S Sugar Creek MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
933
FXUS63 KEAX 262021
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
321 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging wind
  gusts will be possible this afternoon and evening across NE
  Kansas and NW Missouri.

- Locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible this evening into
  late tonight.

- Hot and humid conditions continue through Sunday.

- Showers and storms likely for Sunday evening/night.

- Temperatures should cool a bit down toward seasonal normals
  (upper 80s) for Monday and Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Water vapor and 500 mb height analysis shows a shortwave trough
moving eastward across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a weak
surface cold front is moving eastward across parts of eastern NE
and northeast KS, with a surface low moving into southern MN.
With strong surface heating and dew points in the lower 70s, a
corridor of 4000-4500 J/kg of surface based CAPE has developed
across far NW Missouri and NE Kansas this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms have already initiated
across this area out ahead of the front, with these storms
moving to the east northeast. While shear is weak (only around
15 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear), steep low level lapse rates and
DCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg should support a damaging wind
threat this afternoon and early evening. As such, a severe
thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9 PM tonight for
portions of extreme NE Kansas into NW and northern Missouri. By
later this evening, a cluster or line/broken line of storms is
likely to develop along/near the front across far NW Missouri,
and move to the southeast through the late evening hours into
the early overnight hours. The main concern with this secondary
convective development will likely be the threat for moderate to
heavy rainfall, as PWATs are forecast to reach close to 2". The
12z HREF had probability matched means on the order of 1.5" to
2.5" across a decent swath of the CWA, with localized rainfall
amounts up to 4". Biggest concerns will be moderate/heavy
rainfall over the areas that received the 5+ inches of rain from
Monday night into Tuesday evening, as well as across the Kansas
City metro. Due to these reasons, went ahead and issued a flood
watch from 5 pm this afternoon through 3 am Friday morning for
much of the CWA as a precaution.

Hot and humid conditions continue tomorrow for most locations
(likely slightly cooler across northern and NE Missouri behind
the front), with afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
A few afternoon showers and storms may be possible again,
primarily south of Interstate 70. The 18z HRRR does suggest the
potential for robust convection to fire along a remnant outflow
boundary or differential heating boundary by early to mid
tomorrow afternoon across the KC metro, with wind gusts up to
40 mph and moderate rainfall possible, but we will see how
things evolve tonight into tomorrow morning. Hot and humid again
on Saturday, with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees (best chance for 100+ degree heat index across
NW Missouri). While current grids show only slight chance
afternoon PoPs toward the Ozarks, some guidance (namely the
ECMWF) suggests higher precipitation chances.

Better chances for showers and storms, including some locally
moderate rainfall, arrives on Sunday evening/night as a low
amplitude trough moves across the northern Plains, amplifying as
it moves toward the Great Lakes, and sending a cold front toward
and through our CWA from the northwest. The front may stall out
across southern portions of the region as we head into Monday,
keeping rain chances in the forecast through Monday afternoon.
Cooler temperatures will come behind the front, with highs back
down toward seasonal normals (upper 80s) for Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Currently VFR at all terminals with breezy SSW winds with gusts
up to 25 knots. These conditions should continue through the
afternoon hours. A cluster of thunderstorms is likely to develop
by late afternoon across NW Missouri, moving through STJ
between roughly 1z and 4z tonight, MCI between 3z and 6z, and
MKC and IXD between 4z and 7z. These storms could produce a few
strong wind gusts up to around 50 to 55 mph, especially at STJ.
Rainfall could be moderate to heavy at times, with VIS dropping
to as low as 2SM or so. After the storms exit by late tonight,
VFR conditions and dry weather is expected for the remainder of
the period, with relatively light southwesterly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>007-011>016-
     020>024-028>031-037-038-043.
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-057-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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