Independence, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

420
FXUS63 KEAX 191131
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
631 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dangerous heat expected much of the forecast period- especially
  along and south of I70.  This heat expands north early next week,
  encompassing all of eastern Kansas-Missouri by Tuesday.

* Additional rounds of storms are expected across northern
  Missouri. Isolated storms are possible this morning, with
  greater coverage tonight and Sunday night. While storms are
  largely expected to be sub-severe, a strong wind gust or two
  are possible but could produce locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

As of 08Z, storms are becoming more organized across northern Iowa.
This developing mesoscale convective system is expected to dive
southeast this morning, largely remaining north and east across.
Iowa into northeast Missouri. Low level jet across the central
plains extending from north Texas into eastern Nebraska/ southern
Iowa is creating some weak convergence across northern Missouri.
Despite reservoir of instability aloft, there exists ample cin
limiting the potential for convective development along the south
side of the complex.  Radar is showing isolated storms developing
near Kirksville associated with an area of stronger 850 hpa theta-e
advection across north central into northeast Missouri. These
elevated storms are expected to lift to the northeast, but be
efficient rain producers with deep warm cloud layer and very high
precipitable water values in excess of 2.25". Other area to watch is
across eastern Kansas where we have seen a band of elevated storms
develop.  Expect these storms to hold together for the next few
hours, but weaken as they work into Missouri as they outrun the
instability lifting from near 8-10K feet.

Today will be the first of many very warm days across the region.
Scattered mid and high clouds may hinder insolation slightly, but
will be quite warm.  With high temperatures in the 90s, and dew
points in the 70s, expect heat indicies of 100-105 F within the heat
warning.  Farther north, slightly cooler temperatures are expected
with a little more cloud cover as convection drives boundary back
south as a cold front.  Weak boundary approaches northern Missouri
by late in the day, and moisture pooling just south of the boundary
may still create heat indicies near 100 F across northern Missouri
late this afternoon.

Another low level jet is expected to develop tonight across the
central plains with stronger mass convergence across northern
Missouri into southern Iowa as a short wave builds east across Iowa
in zonal flow.  Capping inversion looks to weaken towards 03Z, and
additional convection building east out of Nebraska could lead to
periods of thunderstorms primarily focused along and north of
highway 36, but could have an isolated storm as far south as the
Missouri River.

With the impacts of the convection potentially bleeding into Sunday,
like the areal coverage of the heat warning.  Models are still
suggesting another round of thunderstorms on the edge of cap Sunday
night into Monday, so temperatures especially across northern
Missouri are a bit uncertain.  With that said, the upper level ridge
also strengthens Monday and continues into mid-late week. This
will result in the heat expanding northward, and the chance for
thunderstorms migrating north.

Have kept heat headlines largely the same, but have extended to
include Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Complex of storms rolling southeast out of Iowa may produce
gusty winds across north central- northeast Missouri this
morning before weakening. Broken band of light showers across
eastern Kansas as of 12Z should continue to weaken as they
attempt to work east. With the elevated nature of the showers,
do not expect them to reach the ground. Southwest flow is
expected throughout the daylight hours, but decoupling could
lead to low level wind shear after 03Z Sunday. Could also see
additional storms develop along and north of highway 36 after
03Z Sunday. Included a prob30 group for KSTJ terminal.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ025-102.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     KSZ057-060-103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT