Independence, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

772
FXUS63 KEAX 060916
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
416 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms today.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible again
  on Saturday and Sunday afternoons, with a few strong to severe
  storms possible.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal for today and
  tomorrow.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Weak shortwave trough currently advancing toward the Ozarks has
spawned a large MCS across much of the Southern Plains this
early morning, with just a few isolated showers across our CWA
as of 3 AM. This shortwave will make its way into the Ozarks by
later this morning, with a pseudo stationary front remaining
south of our CWA as the surface low tracks from west to east
across southern Missouri. A decent amount of cloud cover should
linger through much of the day today, and with us being on the
north side of the boundary, another day of slightly below normal
temperatures is likely with highs in the mid to upper 70s. A
few isolated showers (and perhaps some rumbles of thunder with a
little bit of instability present) will be possible today, with
broadbrushed 20 to 30 PoP in the grids for most of the CWA
through the daylight hours. By later tonight, another shortwave
trough is progged to descend out of the Intermountain West into
eastern CO/western KS by late tonight, likely kicking off yet
another MCS across the Southern Plains overnight tonight into
Saturday morning, with this MCS expected to once again remain
south of our CWA.

By late Saturday morning/early Sat afternoon, this shortwave
trough should make its way into the mid to lower Mississippi
Valley, with the accompanying surface low moving from SE Kansas
across southern portions of our CWA Saturday afternoon, making
its way toward St. Louis by 7 pm Saturday. With modest CAPE (500
to 1000 J/kg), decent deep layer shear (30 to 40 knots of 0-6
km bulk shear), and mid 60s dewpoints (closer to 70 degrees dews
toward the Ozarks/mid Missouri), showers and thunderstorms will
be possible, with the capability for some updrafts to become
well enough organized to produce strong to low end severe
weather. SPC has highlighted most of our CWA within a marginal
risk for severe storms, with a slight risk from essentially
Butler to Boonville and points south. This lines up pretty well
with the 00z SPC HREF, which highlights areas along and south of
Interstate 70 for potential severe storms Saturday afternoon.
Aside from the threat for storms, temperatures for Sat afternoon
once again look to be just a bit below normal for June 7th,
with highs in the upper 70s for most locations.

By Saturday night, a closed mid level low develops over
southern Saskatchewan, with an accompanying amplified mid upper trough
beginning to dig southward into the far northern High Plains.
By around noon Sunday, the closed 500 mb low is progged to
descend toward Winnipeg, with the southern extent of the trough
advancing southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. This will
likely send a cold front through the CWA from northwest to
southeast from late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. With a
modestly unstable airmass along and ahead of this front and
around 30 to 40 knots of deep layer bulk shear, a conditional
threat for a few strong storms will once again be possible, with
SPC putting our CWA from KC to Kirksville and southward into a
marginal risk (slight risk along our shared border with WFO
Springfield along the northern edge of the Ozarks).

Slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather is likely to come
behind the front for Monday as the closed mid level low is
progged to advanced into Wisconsin with strong WNW mid level
flow over our region. The mid to upper low and accompanying trough
exits to the east on Tuesday, with mid level ridging building
in by Wednesday. This will yield warmer temperatures with highs
into the mid 80s across the region for Wednesday and Thursday,
with dry weather continuing outside of some slight chance PoPs
on Thursday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1108 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Low VFR to high MVFR CIGs linger through the period. A storm
system across southern KS approaches bringing some SCT -SHRA
south of STJ through the night. Additional -RA/TSRA is expected
to develop through the morning hours along and south of the MO
River with intermittent precipitation continuing through the
afternoon. Light and variable winds with low VFR CIGs return for
the evening hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...Pesel